tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4516684159528338920.post1335452164949881154..comments2014-06-13T14:25:01.980+10:00Comments on The Crapologist: How to win the lottery. Part 1: The OddsDaryl Hollandnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4516684159528338920.post-83035876598778662362014-03-13T19:58:18.912+11:002014-03-13T19:58:18.912+11:00Lotto draws are not completely independent because...Lotto draws are not completely independent because they are drawn under very similar conditions. Theory of Distribution states that outcome of similar events of equal probability will be distributed (roughly) evenly over possible outcomes given enough events. Casinos depend on this - this is why they always win because even if a punter has a good run the distribution will eventually come back in the casinos favour (games always have more outcomes in favour of the house).<br /><br />And the 50/50 comment is just wrong. There are millions of outcomes that result in a "loss" but only 1 that results in the "win" (division 1 anyway).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4516684159528338920.post-90710277449713467592014-01-20T19:44:53.864+11:002014-01-20T19:44:53.864+11:00If you play for your whole life the odds of winnin...If you play for your whole life the odds of winning are much greater than if you play once.<br /><br />E.g. If you roll a six sided dice 10 times you are much more likely to get a six than if you roll it once.<br /><br />The odds of getting a six each time you roll don't improve, just like the odds of winning with each ticket don't improve. But overall your odds of winning with 10 rolls/tickets are much better than with just one.<br /><br />I'm not suggesting the odds of the man winning with the last ticket he buys is 500 to 1, it isn't, it is 8 million to one. These are the odds of winning with any ticket over his whole lifetime, at the time he buys his first ticket.Daryl Hollandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14156891120615030227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4516684159528338920.post-35991333741715229792014-01-18T19:04:49.458+11:002014-01-18T19:04:49.458+11:00This post is wrong in two ways, although one is du...This post is wrong in two ways, although one is due to a change by Tattersalls.<br /><br />1. The Powerball odds were changed in 2012 and are now some 80 million to one for first division.<br /><br />2. The mythical man playing every week for 50 years is also wrong in giving reduced odds, and this is a common mistake. It was vigorously argued when I was doing high school statistics. The truth is that every game is independent and so your odds are always they same, they do NOT improve by repeat playing. This is a common, but wrong perception.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4516684159528338920.post-22896671912677020762013-11-29T18:37:39.244+11:002013-11-29T18:37:39.244+11:00The chances of winning any money in any lottery ga...The chances of winning any money in any lottery game are actually 50:50.<br />Either you will or you won't...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com